![]() ![]() Quarterly earnings : Economic releases are important, especially the nonfarm payrolls report. GDP and employment and wages play into consumers' buying power, even if the magnitude of their role in inflation is being somewhat questioned. Consumption represents nearly 70% of U.S. If we can get inflation down while keeping folks employed and making more than they did last year, that's an incredibly bullish set up as we work our way into 2024. It will be interesting to see if investors are still as concerned about the impact these numbers may have on inflation. However, these two numbers have stayed high and inflation has come down - as we saw on Friday with the release of the June personal consumption expenditures price index. One thing to note: In past reports a lot of emphasis has been on the strength of the headline number and wage inflation on the view that higher-than-expected results would support elevated inflation. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at about 3.6%. As has been the case for many months, we want a strong headline number (200k is the estimate as of Friday) to be tempered by a slight slowdown in annual wage inflation (4.2% is the estimate as of Friday). We'll get a better read on the employment picture on Wednesday with the ADP report and then, more importantly, on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for July. Investors expect this trend to continue but don't expect the rate to ramp up. Also out Thursday is the ISM Services PMI, which has showed the services industry has expanded for six months straight through June. The further below 50, the faster the contraction and the further above 50, the faster the rate of expansion. The rate of contraction/expansion is measured by the distance from that 50-level benchmark. Anything below 50 on the ISM purchasing managers' index (PMI) is indicative of a contraction while anything above that level points to expansion. That trend isn't expected to have reversed in July, but investors are forecasting the rate of contraction to slow. This number been contracting for the past eight months as of June's ISM Manufacturing report. Combined, these reports provide insight into the state of manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of U.S. The ISM Manufacturing report comes out on Tuesday and factory orders on Thursday. Economic releases : It's another big week for data following the Federal Reserve's expected decision this past Wednesday to raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points. That includes the super important monthly jobs report on Friday. More economic data is on the way, which should show how the Federal Reserve is doing in its battle against inflation. Looking to next week, earnings season enters its second half with the last of our mega-caps - Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) - set to report on Thursday. Thursday snapped a 13-day winning streak for the 30-stock Dow average, a stretch not seen since 1987. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led with a 2% gain, while the S & P 500 increased about 1% and the Dow rose 0.6%. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or LowerĪll three major averages advanced for the week, powered by strong mega-cap earnings and favorable inflation data. Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit ![]()
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